Opportunity scoring and striking distance

Click-through rate (CTR) is clicks divided by impressions. A CTR curve gives the CTR a site gets at each Google position. MeasureScale fits this curve from your own Google Search Console data. It uses the curve to estimate the value of a better ranking.

MeasureScale uses the method in four ways:

• It shows the CTR curve itself.
• It lists queries that rank slightly outside the top positions, with an estimated click gain.
• It ranks queries by the extra clicks a better position could bring.
• It shows position buckets, with the CTR curve beside them at its default settings.

How to read the answer

• The CTR curve shows what share of impressions turn into clicks at each position on your own site.
• A striking-distance query ranks just outside the top positions. The answer estimates the extra clicks a better position could bring.
• A high-priority query earns fewer clicks than its position should bring. Start with those queries.
• Click gains are estimates, not forecasts. They assume the query earns your site’s usual CTR at the better position.
• A query alone at its position can score too low. Ask your assistant to flag such queries before you rank them.

What it answers

• What CTR does your site get at each Google position?
• Which queries rank between positions 4 and 20, and how many clicks would position 3 add?
• Which queries earn fewer clicks than their position should bring?

Inputs

The curve, striking distance and opportunity scoring read the same Search Console data. It is the top 1,000 queries by clicks in the requested window. With no dates, the window is the last 28 settled days. A settled day is a day whose data Google has finished processing.

Each query has clicks, impressions and an average position. The average position is Search Console’s impression-weighted average ranking position. The data has no page dimension, so these results do not name a page.

The CTR curve

The curve uses only your property’s own Search Console data. MeasureScale uses no third-party CTR benchmark data.

How it works

• MeasureScale groups your queries by whole position, from 1 to 20.
• It computes the actual CTR at each position from its clicks and impressions.
• Positions with at least 100 impressions enter the fit. You can ask for a smaller or larger minimum.
• It smooths those CTRs into a curve that never rises as the position gets worse.

At least 2 positions must qualify. Otherwise, there is no curve. The curve never extrapolates. A position outside the fitted range has no fitted CTR.

Performance status

The curve compares each position’s actual CTR with its fitted CTR. It uses a relative band of 15%.

A position gets a status only when it has enough impressions to enter the fit.

Striking distance

A striking-distance query ranks slightly outside the top positions. A small ranking gain could add many clicks. MeasureScale finds these queries in four steps:

1. It keeps queries whose average position is from 4 to 20, both included. You can ask for a different range.
2. It keeps queries with at least 100 impressions. You can ask for a different minimum.
3. It estimates the extra clicks the query could get at position 3. You can ask for a different target position.
4. It sorts the queries by impressions, highest first.

The estimate uses your CTR curve at the target position. It is never below 0. There is no estimate when the curve does not cover the target position.

A query at an average position of 10 or better is at the bottom of page 1. A query at a position worse than 10 is on page 2.

Opportunity scoring

MeasureScale compares each query’s actual CTR with a target CTR. The target CTR is the curve’s value at the query’s position. The headroom is the gap between the two, never below 0.

• MeasureScale estimates the extra clicks the query would get at its target CTR.
• The opportunity score weighs those clicks by how hard the position is to improve.
• A query at or above the curve has a score of 0.
• A query needs at least 500 impressions to be scored. You can ask for a different minimum.

The score sets the priority:

The list is sorted by score, highest first. Ties are sorted by query.

Excluding a query’s own data

A query should not set its own target. MeasureScale therefore reads each query’s target from a curve that excludes that query’s own data. This matters most for a head term, a query that holds most of the impressions at its position.

Sometimes too little data from other queries remains at the position. The target then includes the query’s own data. The result flags each such query and counts them.

Striking distance does not use this correction. It reads one target position from the curve fitted on all queries.

Limits

• Top 1,000 queries. The curve and the scores use the top 1,000 queries by clicks. The result says when the data reached that limit.
• Positions 1 to 20. The curve covers 20 positions at most. A query whose position the curve does not cover gets no score. The result counts these queries.
• Branded queries. The curve mixes branded and non-branded queries. You cannot separate them here.
• Queries alone at a position. Such a query keeps its own data in its target and can score too low. Check the flag before you rank it.
• Estimates. The click figures assume the query would earn your site’s fitted CTR at the better position. They are estimates, not forecasts.