Paid and organic overlap
How MeasureScale lines up your Google Ads search terms with your Search Console queries, what each group means and why overlap is not proof of waste.
Paid and organic overlap compares the search terms you pay for with the queries you rank for. It uses Google Ads and Search Console. It sorts each term into a group, so you can see where to look first.
The overlap shows where paid and organic meet. It does not show what stopping an ad would do. Read overlap is not incrementality before you act on it.
What it answers
- Am I paying for searches where I already rank at the top?
- Where do my ads convert while my organic ranking is weak?
- Which paid terms have no organic presence at all?
What it reads
- Google Ads: the search terms report, with clicks, cost and conversions.
- Search Console: every query for the site, with clicks, impressions and average position.
You name the Google Ads account and the Search Console site.
How the sources are lined up
- The window is the Search Console window, ending at its last settled day. Search Console settles about 3 days late. Google Ads settles yesterday. Search Console sets the end.
- A search term and a query match when they are the same after lower-casing, trimming and collapsing spaces. They also match when they differ only by surrounding quote marks. MeasureScale does no stemming and no fuzzy matching. “Running shoes” and “running shoe” stay separate.
- Quote marks can change what a search means. When two spellings differ only by quotes, the answer warns that the match may have merged two searches.
- A term with no Search Console row has no organic numbers. It is empty, not zero.
- Search Console hides some queries for privacy. MeasureScale cannot match them. The answer shows their share of your clicks.
The groups
Each term with ads activity goes into the first group that fits, in this order. The defaults are listed after the table. You can ask for others.
| Group | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Paying for rank | Enough ad clicks, and organic already ranks in the top positions with clicks |
| Organic opportunity | The ads convert well, but organic ranks weakly |
| Paid supports organic | Enough ad clicks, and organic ranks below the top positions |
| Ads only | Enough ad activity, and no Search Console row |
| Not classified | Everything else, including a top-ranked term with too few ad clicks |
Defaults:
- Enough ad clicks: at least 10 ad clicks.
- Top positions: an average organic position of 3 or better.
- Weak ranking: an average position worse than 10.
- Converts well: at least 2 ad conversions.
Queries that only appear in Search Console are not returned. The summary counts them.
An ads only term does not mean organic cannot rank. The query may be one that Search Console hides.
Cost at stake
The answer adds up the ad cost of the paying for rank terms. This is the most that could move if paid stopped. It is not a saving. Organic would not win all of those clicks.
Position
The average position is weighted by impressions across the whole window. It is not a rank on any one day.
Confidence
| Confidence | Needs |
|---|---|
| High | At least 50 ad clicks and 100 Search Console impressions |
| Medium | At least 10 ad clicks and 30 impressions |
| Low | Less than that, or no Search Console row |
Brand searches
Your own brand name often ranks first and costs little. You can include brand searches, leave them out or look at them only. MeasureScale finds brand searches from your site’s domain name. A brand that differs from its domain name is not caught.
The group shares in the summary cover the ad cost that remains after the brand filter. The answer counts the brand terms it left out and their cost.
Results
Terms come sorted by ad cost, highest first.
Overlap is not incrementality
Every overlap answer carries a note that it does not measure incrementality. Incrementality is the extra conversions your ads bring that you would not have had without them.
- An organic position at the top does not show that organic would win the click if the ad stopped.
- Some people click the ad because it is there. Some would have clicked the organic result. Overlap cannot tell them apart.
- MeasureScale never tells you to stop bidding on a term.
The test that can show it is a holdout:
- Choose a set of keywords or campaigns that look similar to another set.
- Pause one set for a few weeks. Keep the other running.
- Compare total conversions from all sources for the two sets over the same weeks.
If total conversions hold up when the ads stop, organic took the clicks. If they fall, the ads were adding conversions. MeasureScale does not run this test. You run it in Google Ads.
Limits
- Google hides low-volume search terms. MeasureScale never guesses their numbers. The answer warns when the visible terms cover less than your total ad cost.
- Search Console days follow Pacific time. Google Ads days follow the account’s time zone. The offset matters most at the edges of a short window. The answer warns when the window is under 14 days.
- Search Console returns a limited number of queries. A query that was cut off can look hidden.
- The groups set an order for your work. They are not a ranking for budget decisions.