Traffic forecast
How MeasureScale projects daily Search Console clicks or impressions up to 90 days ahead, with 80% and 95% bands.
A forecast projects a daily metric past the last day of the data. MeasureScale forecasts the daily clicks or impressions of a Google Search Console property. It extends the recent trend, repeats the weekly pattern and adds bands for the uncertainty. It does not read GA4 data.
How to read the answer
- Read the forecast as a range, not as one number. The 95% band is wider than the 80% band.
- Every forecast has low confidence. It extends the recent trend and repeats the weekly pattern only.
- Holidays, seasonal peaks, Google updates and campaigns are not in the forecast.
- A recent spike or drop tilts the whole forecast. Treat a 90-day forecast as a rough direction.
- If your real traffic falls outside the bands, something changed. Ask your assistant to look for anomalies and change points.
What it answers
- How many clicks or impressions should the site get each day over the next weeks?
- How wide is the range of likely values on each of those days?
- Which weekly pattern does the forecast repeat?
Inputs
MeasureScale reads one daily series of the property’s clicks or impressions. You can ask for either one. Clicks is the default. The series follows the same rules as anomaly detection. The daily series describes them in full.
- Two windows. MeasureScale reads the requested window and the window of the same length before it. The earlier window is the baseline.
- Default window. With no dates, the requested window is the last 28 settled days. A settled day is a day whose data Google has finished processing. The series then spans up to 56 days.
- Short lookback. If the baseline would start before the earliest date your plan allows, the series is the requested window alone.
- Days with no row. Search Console sends no row for a day without traffic. Such a day inside the returned data counts as 0.
- Data that ends early. If the data ends before the last day of the window, the forecast does not run.
The forecast starts on the day after the window ends. It covers 28 days by default. You can ask for 1 to 90 days.
How it works
- MeasureScale separates the weekly pattern from the trend in your series.
- It extends the recent trend past the last day of the data.
- It adds the weekly pattern back for each forecast day.
- It builds the bands from how much the series varied around its pattern. The bands widen with the distance from the data.
- Predictions and lower bounds never go below 0.
Each forecast day has a predicted value, an 80% band and a 95% band.
Confidence
Search Console keeps about 16 months of data. That is too short to fit a yearly pattern. MeasureScale therefore fits only the weekly pattern. Every forecast has low confidence.
| Days in the series | Result |
|---|---|
| Fewer than 14 | No forecast. The result says the data was too short. |
| 14 or more | A low-confidence forecast with the weekly pattern only |
The result states the reason for its confidence in words.
Limits
- A straight-line trend. The trend follows only the most recent weeks. A recent spike or drop changes the slope for the whole horizon.
- No yearly pattern. Seasonal peaks, holidays and annual events are not modeled.
- No outside events. Algorithm updates, site changes and campaigns are not modeled.
- Bands are not a guarantee. The bands assume the day-to-day noise stays as it was in the series. A change in the site can move traffic outside them.
- Long horizons. The bands widen with the horizon. Treat a 90-day forecast as a rough direction.
- Search Console only. The forecast reads Search Console data. It does not read GA4 data.